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Climate change is radically altering coral reef ecosystems, mainly through increasingly frequent and severe bleaching events. Yet, some reefs have exhibited higher thermal tolerance after bleaching severely the first time. To understand changes in thermal tolerance in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), we compiled four decades of temperature, coral cover, coral bleaching, and mortality data, including three mass bleaching events during the 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 El Niño heatwaves. Higher heat resistance in later bleaching events was detected in the dominant framework-building genus, Pocillopora, while other coral taxa exhibited similar susceptibility across events. Genetic analyses of Pocillopora spp . colonies and their algal symbionts (2014 to 2016) revealed that one of two Pocillopora lineages present in the region ( Pocillopora “ type 1”) increased its association with thermotolerant algal symbionts ( Durusdinium glynnii ) during the 2015 to 2016 heat stress event. This lineage experienced lower bleaching and mortality compared with Pocillopora “type 3”, which did not acquire D. glynnii . Under projected thermal stress, ETP reefs may be able to preserve high coral cover through the 2060s or later, mainly composed of Pocillopora colonies that associate with D. glynnii . However, although the low-diversity, high-cover reefs of the ETP could illustrate a potential functional state for some future reefs, this state may only be temporary unless global greenhouse gas emissions and resultant global warming are curtailed. 

Abstract. Ship-based time series, some now approaching over 3 decades long, are critical climate records that have dramatically improved our ability to characterize natural and anthropogenic drivers of ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and biogeochemical processes. Advancements in autonomous marine carbon sensors and technologies over the last 2 decades have led to the expansion of observations at fixed time series sites, thereby improving the capability of characterizing sub-seasonal variability in the ocean. Here, we present a data product of 40 individual autonomous moored surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) time series established between 2004 and 2013, 17 also include autonomous pH measurements. These time series characterize a wide range of surface ocean carbonate conditions in different oceanic (17 sites), coastal (13 sites), and coral reef (10 sites) regimes. A time of trend emergence (ToE) methodology applied to the time series that exhibit well-constrained daily to interannual variability and an estimate of decadal variability indicates that the length of sustained observations necessary to detect statistically significant anthropogenic trends varies by marine environment. The ToE estimates for seawater pCO2 and pH range from 8 to 15 years at the open ocean sites, 16 to 41 years at the coastal sites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station (WHOTS) in the subtropical North Pacific and Stratus in the South Pacific gyre, have been deployed longer than the estimated trend detection time and, for these, deseasoned monthly means show estimated anthropogenic trends of 1.9±0.3 and 1.6±0.3 µatm yr−1, respectively. In the future, it is possible that updates to this product will allow for the estimation of anthropogenic trends at more sites; however, the product currently provides a valuable tool in an accessible format for evaluating climatology and natural variability of surface ocean carbonate chemistry in a variety of regions. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V5DB8043 and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/Moorings/ndp097.html (Sutton et al., 2018). 

In an era of global change, the fate and form of reef habitats will depend on shifting assemblages of organisms and their responses to multiple stressors. Multiphyletic assemblages of calcifying and bioeroding species contribute to a dynamic balance between constructive and erosive processes, and reef‐framework growth occurs only when calcium‐carbonate deposition exceeds erosion. Each contributing species exhibits a unique combination of environmental sensitivities, trophic needs, and competitive abilities, making the net outcome of their habitat‐altering behavior difficult to predict. In this study, standardized blocks of clean, massivePoriteswere placed at six reef sites in the eastern tropical Pacific, in the strongly and more‐weakly upwelling Gulfs of Panamá (GoP) and Chiriquí (GoC), respectively. Sites were chosen to characterize the unique thermal and carbonate‐chemistry conditions of each gulf. Satellite products were used to examine differences in sea‐surface productivity, and surveys were conducted to quantify the abundance of important grazing taxa. After two years in situ, thePoritesblocks were collected and scanned using high‐resolution computed tomography to volumetrically quantify both endolithic and epilithic habitat alteration. Scan‐volumes were further classified into functional groups according to morphology to quantify external bioerosion by fish and sea urchins, as well as the calcifying and bioeroding activity of crustose coralline algae, scleractinian corals, mollusks, annelids, and barnacles. The GoP, which has higher productivity, cooler temperatures, and periodically lower pH conditions, had higher rates of macroboring, but also higher rates of calcification. These unexpectedly higher rates of calcification in the GoP were a result of high recruitment of suspension‐feeding taxa, particularly barnacles and vermiform fauna that have poor reef‐forming potential. External bioerosion by grazers was the dominant process influencing these dead coral substrates across both gulfs, contributing to higher rates of net erosion in the GoC and underscoring the important roles that urchins and fish play in not just removing algae on reefs, but also eroding reef habitat. Ultimately these findings reveal that the trophic requirements of habitat‐altering taxa are closely tied to reef‐framework stability, and that environmental conditions conducive to carbonate precipitation are not necessarily those that will lead to habitat persistence.

 

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral‐bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral‐reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral‐reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision‐making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km²) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

 

Identifying which factors lead to coral bleaching resistance is a priority given the global decline of coral reefs with ocean warming. During the second year of back‐to‐back bleaching events in the Florida Keys in 2014 and 2015, we characterized key environmental and biological factors associated with bleaching resilience in the threatened reef‐building coralOrbicella faveolata. Ten reefs (five inshore, five offshore, 179 corals total) were sampled during bleaching (September 2015) and recovery (May 2016). Corals were genotyped with 2bRADand profiled for algal symbiont abundance and type.O. faveolataat the inshore sites, despite higher temperatures, demonstrated significantly higher bleaching resistance and better recovery compared to offshore. The thermotolerantDurusdinium trenchii(formerlySymbiondinium trenchii) was the dominant endosymbiont type region‐wide during initial (78.0% of corals sampled) and final (77.2%) sampling; >90% of the nonbleached corals were dominated byD. trenchii. 2bRADhost genotyping found no genetic structure among reefs, but inshore sites showed a high level of clonality. While none of the measured environmental parameters were correlated with bleaching, 71% of variation in bleaching resistance and 73% of variation in the proportion ofD. trenchiiwas attributable to differences between genets, highlighting the leading role of genetics in shaping natural bleaching patterns. Notably,D. trenchiiwas rarely dominant inO. faveolatafrom the Florida Keys in previous studies, even during bleaching. The region‐wide high abundance ofD. trenchiiwas likely driven by repeated bleaching associated with the two warmest years on record for the Florida Keys (2014 and 2015). On inshore reefs in the Upper Florida Keys,O. faveolatawas most abundant, had the highest bleaching resistance, and contained the most corals dominated byD. trenchii, illustrating a causal link between heat tolerance and ecosystem resilience with global change.